Questionstorm for scenario uncertainties
From WikiEducator
Per definition, the outcome of an uncertainty is unkown and consequently will have a "yes" or "no" outcome. For example, we could ask:
- Will massive open online courses (MOOCs) displace the traditional university? In answer to this question, we could postulate:
- Yes: because the competition of more affordable access to education will drive expensive providers out of the market or
- No: MOOC providers will not be able to generate a sustainble business model from offering free access to education.
In scenario planning it is about plausibility, not predicting whether the outcome will be true or not. The purpose of this questionstorm is to generate a list of ideas and rankings for potential uncertainties that could be used by SP4Ed participants in their scenarios.
Note: This is a prototype wiki technology we are testing with the pilot offering of SP4Ed 13.07. We appreciate your willingness to help us test an online "Questionstorm" activity.
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- Will massive open online courses (MOOCs) displace the traditional university?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: MOOCs could displace the traditional institution:
Possible rationale: Rapid expansion to free learning opportunities combined with the growing acceptance of alternative and cheaper forms of certification in the market place could conceivably displace the traditional university. - ▼ ~ ▲No: MOOCs would not displace the traditional institution:
Possible rationale: In the absence of an appropriate revenue model it is conceivable that the costs of developing MOOCs for tertiary education will not be sustained by the commercial model in the long term thus public funded education institutions will retain "competitive advantage".
- Will "open badges" gain traction as an acceptable form of credentialing?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Employers and society gain trust in the open badge model as an alternative to traditional certification offered by tertiary education institutions.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Employers and society do not accept open badges as an authentic substitute for traditional university, community college or polytechnic credentials.
- Will specialist private providers and niche TAFE offerings erode university's traditional user-base?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Parents of kids now making higher ed choices are still feeling the dreadful pinch of their HECS debts. High incidence of students who have completed masters level study and even PhD to find that there are no jobs anyway, and academia as employment opportunity is contracting too. Getting a Tafe qualification in 2 years with strong articulation into workforce and at half the cost of a university degree is a smart choice.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Universities will continue to show their value and will leverage research skills and interdisciplinarity to give their students an advantage by developing in them high-valued and highly-paid graduate qualities and skills.
- Will teachers offer resistance to MOOC's
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Teachers like interacting with live students. Online interaction is less human and takes time to get used to process. There would be several service providers and getting used to processes requires change in mindset. Teachers would oppose
- ▼ ~ ▲No: "Change is a Constant Phenomenon". MOOC's offer more odience to faculty and experiment teaching learning skills. They would accept the challenge and mould themselves to be global faculty than local faculty.
- Will MOOC's devlove into the next phase of institutionally administered distance education?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: xMOOCs typically adopt established broadcast methods drawn from instructivist pedagogy, often limiting participation to question and answer sessions with subject experts. Once the problem of validating participation is solved, xMOOCs will merely add another revenu stream for major brands. As in retail, smaller providers will be driven out by this new Hyper-Market approach to education.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: cMOOC platforms will continue to evolve, eventually offering a wide range of effective alternatives to traditional, institution-centered education. These new MOOCs will fill the need for "21st century" problem solving, collaborative, and communicative skills. Semi-public accreditation authorities will enable small MOOCs to disrupt traditional distance education markets.
- Will increased outsourcing and franchising of schooling services for course content systems, e-library, e-assessment, and recruitment/selection reduce public schooling to a small percentage in many countries?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Virtual schooling has been rapidly expanding for a decade in the USA with the recent emergence of a franchised Virtual schooling has been rapidly expanding for a decade in the USA with the recent emergence of a franchised chain of schools that use the same outsourced learning/content/assessment system. This will continue to expand and spread to other countries and spawn others. The scalability and alternative sources of revenue will attract public agencies to encourage growth.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Governments and families will preserve schooling in more traditional formats, including back to basics including the studying of Latin and grammar with learner-centred activities left to after school clubs (see current initiatives England).
- Will a relatively small number of educational leaders successfully challenge the "status quo" and transform education?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: A relatively small group of leaders, successfully collaborating with learners, faculty and other stakeholders can both successfully implement change, and they can also meaningfully communicate and initiate change globally. Student learning is often deeper and more relevant.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Traditional educators, working within a monolithic structure, maintain the status quo, focussing on management details like hours of instruction, bell schedules, and timetables. Student learning is generally shallow and trivial.
- Will university schools and faculties be able to think beyond their own disciplines and incorporate a broader, outward facing and problem-oriented interdisciplinary approach to learning?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Faculty and administration will increasingly open up to the possibility of courses, programs and degrees built around complex real-world problems using technology-supported immersive simulations and scenarios
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Faculty and administration will bunker down and do what they can to reinforce existing academic silos.
- Will computer based learning games/apps replace hands on learning games in the classroom?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Hands on learning games will not be available within the classroom, all learning games will be on a computer, online or through an app.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: There will be hands on learning games as well as computer based learning games available in classrooms
- Will open online education be the way of the future for SE Asian countries?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Education systems are only meeting the needs of a minority of learners, costs are high and many staff are untrained and are unable to be effective teachers. Online educators will be fully trained and be able to deliver creative tasks for all students.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Influence of traditional systems are embedded into the culture and are working for and meeting the needs of the particular society.
- Will online tutorials take place over the need for Teacher/Student interaction?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Online tutorials already play a big part in guiding us through our uncertainties and supporting our learning. In the future we will not need teachers to teach as we will have everything we need at the click of a finger.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Although online tutorials can support learning, students do not always know what it is they need to learn. Therefore they need Teacher support to guide them.
- Will public school curricula in the secondary sector move from being content driven to having a competency and skills focus?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Demands from employers and students plus extreme personalisation of learning will force education bodies to scale back on setting content-based curriculum and instead focus only on guiding skills and competencies. Written, visual and digital literacy will still be included, as will basic numeracy.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Status quo will remain - subject and content knowledge will remain the backbone of public school curricula, with skills built in and around it, but there will be an increase in collaboration between learners.
- Will the trend towards personalised learning have a flow on effect and result in personalised assessment?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Students will not only become co-creators of their own learning but also they will work with advisors to co-create their own assessment plan. National guidelines, based on international assessment guidelines that are established for the global community, will be in place for all learners to follow.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: While students may pick and choose what and how they study, there will still be a national set of assessments across a range of subjects / skills / competencies which all students must sit.
- Will schools form outside of tradition bricks and mortar to be based in the community in general, with funds being directed more towards learning tools (tablets, laptops, etc), as opposed to funding being spent on building maintenance.
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Students, families and the government will see the benefits of reducing costs on non-educational items, instead prioritizing funding on items that have a direct impact on student learning.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Students benefit from the security and routine of being in a traditional classroom environment.
- Will socio-cultural movements in Latin America redefine education needs in such a way it may have an impact on global delivery of knowledge?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Local Social movements gain importance in the objectiosn they raise to the global euducational model and are supported by eastern countries. Thus, new needs arise.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: The establishment will ignore these as minor complaints and the requests will remain as minority claims and solved accordingly.
- Will the increase in BYOD, social media, social & virtual learning and global student collaboration mean the end of the traditional content- or outcomes-based exam (be it with paper & pen or online) across both secondary and tertiary education sectors?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Exams of all kinds will be a thing of the past.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: End of course / unit / semester / year content or outcomes-based exams will still exist, however they will be digital and accessible anytime based on learner readiness.
- Will students continue to physically attend schools on a daily basis?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: the social control aspects of education will remain with students expected to attend school on a daily basis in the community
- ▼ ~ ▲No: online access to resources and virtual learning mean students will have the choice of physically attending a school or not
- Will faculty be appointed on skills, credits ,certificate awarded by MOOC or nontraditional way by universities,schools
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: The skills acquired by non traditional ways will be at par with traditional ways and they will be in better position to deliver non traditional ways of teaching
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Their quality will be doubted
- Will we see increased participation by women in the senior ranks and decision-making positions amongst staff in higher education institutions?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Gender parity in educational opportunity has succeeded worldwide and the introduction of new technologies and trends in teaching and learning has contributed to a more flexible expectation of the nature of work, that permits those, not only women, who prefer a less formally structured environment, to become institutional leaders.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Educational opportunities continue to be patchy for women in participation and result. The glass ceiling still remains, and perceptions of women's inability to fully contribute means that some women make the choice to maintain a work-life balance that does not include the holding of a senior position.
- Will the purchase or integration of technology be driven primarily by student needs?
sum- ▼ ~ ▲Yes: Schools will integrate technology that is relevant and useful to students. They will reassess the appropriate technologies on a regular basis and allow their technologies to evolve with student needs. Schools will not be swayed by corporations or politics when purchasing technology.
- ▼ ~ ▲No: Schools will allow corporations and politics to sway their technological purchases regardless of the needs of students. The integration of technology will be based on what is trending and special pricing. Student needs will be adjusted to fit the technology after it is integrated instead of the students needs taking priority.
