Creating sustainable futures/CSF103/Backcasting/Backcasting from principles
The Natural Step’s sustainability principles in the FSSD have been carefully designed for backcasting. Specifically, they are non-overlapping (that is, they are mutually exclusive, each covering a separate cause of unsustainability), and exhaustive (that is, together they cover all causes of unsustainability). And, to be used effectively for strategic planning using a backcasting methodology, the principles are also intentionally designed to be:
- Necessary: to define success
- Sufficient: to cover everything required for success
- General: to be equally applicable and useful for all sectors
- Concrete: to provide direction and inspiration for real action
- Distinct: by being mutually exclusive to enable robust monitoring of progress
Scenario planning might be compared to a jigsaw puzzle. There is a fixed and predetermined picture that you are creating. In the real world, the picture might be thought of as a view of the future that you are betting on, and thus working towards.
Backcasting from principles is more dynamic, and strategic. As opposed to a jigsaw puzzle, it might be likened to a game of chess. The principles defining success are fixed - checkmate, when your opponent can no longer move their king without being taken. How you reach that ultimate point is determined by strategy and actions that can adapt to changing circumstances, or how your opponent plays. Each move is evaluated against the goal of ultimate success. It allows predetermined strategies to be adapted and changed, depending on how well they are working, or to respond to a new situation.
