Scenarios assignment

Summary

In this assignment you will prepare two scenarios for alternative futures focusing on change with digital technologies in education.

• Words: 1 600 (approximately 5 pages excluding references)
  • Overview - 1 page
  • Two scenarios - 4 pages
• Total marks: 100 expressed as Grade
• Weighting: 50% of Assignment 1 (i.e. 25% of assignment credits for the course)

Two scenarios for alternate futures

You are required to author two scenarios demonstrating your knowledge and understanding of the scenario planning methodology.

Key points

This assignment draws on your work from the following e-Learning activities: Scenario matrix and Newspaper article Review the DEANZ 2016 Scenarios for examples of scenario summaries and descriptions of key uncertainties. Assertions relating to key drivers of change should be supported by the research literature. (Note: Due to the forward-looking disposition of scenario planning, key uncertainties would not necessarily have a research base to substantiate the uncertainty.)

1. Overview of the scenario matrix. In this overview you must:
   • Provide an introduction describing the context for which the scenarios are built, including for example: sector, country or region and target audience.
   • Write a short paragraph describing each uncertainty where you summarise the uncertainty in a sentence or two and justify the reasons why the factors you have chosen are uncertainties.
   • Generate a graphic for your scenario matrix with a descriptive title for each quadrant.
2. Scenario story lines. Generate two scenarios of appropriately 500 words each (i.e. two quadrants of your choice) using the following subheadings
   • Executive summary: The overview paragraph should describe the high-level outcome of the interplay between the two uncertainties
   • Scenario story line: Describe the key elements of the scenario illustrating how the uncertainties contribute to an alternate educational future with illustrative examples.
   • Conclusion: The conclusion should summarise the implications for change(s) described in the scenario.

Assessment rubric

Assessment dimension	Category	D level and below	C level	B level	A level	%
Knowledge and skills: Strategic planning	Scenario planning methodology	Fails to distinguish uncertainties from trends, inconsistent logic, scenarios move into the realm of speculation or merely describe inevitable futures	Scenarios are adequately described: Uncertainties are valid and justified Internal logic and interplay among factors is plausible Some evidence that context and trends are informed by literature. Scenarios may not be equally compelling.	As for C but with greater clarity and understanding of the methodology. Both scenarios are equally compelling alternatives for the future and illustrated with plausible examples. Demonstrates the relational interplay among trends, factors and uncertainties within the construct of the scenario quadrant.	As for B. Both scenarios provide a high-level of decision-making utility for multiple stakeholders as determined by the context. The student demonstrates an exemplary understanding of the scenario planning methodology and its utility for conceptualising substantive change in education.	50
Knowledge and skills: Research	Depth of knowledge of literature on contemporary trends driving change in education today	No sources affirming assertions of trends cited, or sources are outdated or not relevant to the scenario context.	Minimum of 3 sources appropriately cited in justifying contemporary trends.	Minimum of 5 independent but recent sources appropriately cited in justifying contemporary trends.	8 or more independent but recent sources appropriately cited for justifying contemporary trends.	10
Reflective praxis: Strategic planning	Implications	Implications do not flow logically from the scenarios	Implications have been identified and relate to the scenarios.	As for C, but evidence of thoughtful consideration of implications in that they are focus on the most significant considerations taking multiple stakeholders into account (eg learners, teachers and organisation)	As for B plus conclusions and implications are carefully and skilfully drawn demonstrating critical insight into the decision-making challenges. The implications are unique in that they could not have reasonably been anticipated without a plausible and well constructed scenario.	30
Communication	Structure, typography and mechanics	Numerous spelling, syntax and typographical errors.	Only one or two spelling, syntax or typographical errors. Good attempt to use correct APA formatting,	No errors and correct APA formatting. Scenarios well structured and well written.	Communicates effectively for the specified audience. Fluently written scenarios which are easy to read but signify scholarly effort. No errors.	10