e-Learning Activity - Scenario matrix

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e-Learning activity summary

Title: Publishing your scenario matrix
30 - 45 mins

Start here

Review the examples below which illustrate how to construct a deductive scenario matrix.
Stimulus to illustrate examples on how to construct a scenario matrix

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The purpose of this e-Learning activity is to:
  • select the uncertainties for your scenario
  • justify why these uncertainties are important and uncertain
  • construct and publish a scenario matrix.

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  1. Visit the list of key uncertainty questions shared by participants to generate ideas for selecting uncertainties relevant to your own context
  2. Cast votes (if appropriate) for new uncertainties listed since you last visited the site.
  3. Review the stimulus image above to see how to construct a scenario matrix with four resultant quadrants.
  4. Select the key uncertainties you would like to use for your own scenario. Note:
    • In some cases, it may be appropriate to distinguish between low and high impact of the uncertainty concerned.
    • You are free to select your uncertainties from the list generated by participants but you may decide to use your own alternatives.
    • Remember to select factors which are important (e.g. they will result in a fundamental impact on current operations) and uncertain.
    • Plot a draft scenario matrix using 2 to 4 key uncertainties and see if the resultant quadrants in the 2 X 2 matrix are valid and would contribute to the development of a coherent and plausible story line for your scenario. You may need to refine your identified uncertainties or use better alternatives.
  5. Select your final uncertainties for constructing a scenario matrix.

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Learning outcome actions

  1. Using graphics software or slideshow software, create and save an image illustrating your scenario matrix containing the uncertainties you have selected.
  2. Publish a blog post (about 200 - 250 words) providing an overview of your scenario matrix using the image you created above. Describe each uncertainty in a sentence. For each factor, justify why it's important and why the factor is uncertain in your particular context.
  3. We encourage participants to comment on each others blog posts.